Interdependency and cascading effects impact assessment
The component provides a method and a tool to address the risk from the possible multiple hazards & threats to SIPS CI. If multiple hazards are present, it would be of interest how to monitor each one of them and inform decision makers what is going on in a given moment.
Component uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) in order to probabilistically analyse the available information in a risk model. The component is focused only on the analysis and interpretation of the information, e.g., from specific sensors and their performance information (thus strongly depend on them).
Required inputs (and order of building a risk model):
• Prepared case specific risk model (hazards/threats → consequences), including cascading events
• Information on available sensing of hazards/threats to occur
• Information on background likelihoods per specific hazards/threats
• Information on the performance of the sensing devices, etc.
Using “live” data from sensors allows to analyse and identify which hazards/threats are on-going in real time consideting the logical relations among the events in a potential disaster scenario that is specific to the SIPS in question. The updating the risk model (as a BBN model in a software tool) allows to assess relative probabilities for each hazard/threat considered. This brings support to the risk managers in terms of situational awareness.